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I I This does not diminish the value of Property Value Distribution 2 continued growth of the commercial 2009 Crow Wing County Assessor's Data 3 tax base, but it does underscore the 3% 4 notion that the City's economy is not 16% 5 wholly dependent on commercial 6 I properties'. U Agri culturaI/Forestry 7 14% u Residential u Commercial/Industrial 8 CURRENTTRENDS ;' UOther 9 As a neighborhood center, the Pequot y�/ 67% 10 Lakes economy is impacted by a 11 number of factors beyond its ability to 12 control or even influence.The most pressing factors, created by the national recession, have changed dramatically 13 in just the last two years. It now appears that, for Pequot Lakes as well as other similar communities across the 14 country, the recent period of rapid growth has come to an end. Although it is not clear what will follow, there are 15 some realities that are starting to emerge as critical to the City's future economic development potential. 16 Population migration.The current economic downturn has manifested itself most clearly in the mortgage 17 market, where home prices have fallen. National reports indicate that one in four mortgage holders owe 18 more on their homes than they are worth, which inevitably stifles the ability for people to sell and move. 19 For an area like Pequot Lakes that has been reliant on people moving to the area to start new businesses 20 I and lorkforce7-growth `"^ ^~'`^~ ^from in-migration, reduced mobility presents a changed reality. 21 Aging infrastructure. A tremendous amount of infrastructure has been put into the ground to 22 accommodate and, to some extent, induce growth. Whether or not the resulting tax base justifies the 23 investment,the infrastructure deteriorates and will someday require substantial, expensive maintenance. 24 In the current (and future) economy, it will be necessary to make the highest use of each infrastructure 25 investment the city chooses to maintain. 26 • Aging population. Elderly households typically have incomes that are more stable and fluctuate less with 27 market conditions, good or bad. A Pequot Lakes population that is slightly older than the state average 28 (which itself is considered disproportionately aging) indicates some built in resistance to policies that 29 involve risk or the potential for tax rate fluctuations. 30 • Less government support. State and federal governments are realizing the same kind of fiscal limitations 31 as local governments and are questioning priorities for future spending.Assistance for local governments 32 has been cut dramatically and future cuts are almost assured. With populations nationwide shifting from 33 rural to urban/suburban areas, policymakers are questioning the wisdom of future infrastructure 34 investments in less populated areas. While there will likely be some money available from state and 35 federal sources, the City of Pequot Lakes needs to prepare for the day when outside governmental 36 support is negligible. 37 More connected world. From the Internet to cellular phones, our ability to communicate with each other 38 has vastly expanded. Where Pequot Lakes was once remote and isolated, it now has excellent city-wide 39 broadband service, with competition that drives further innovation and service improvements. This 40 presents a new opportunity that can be capitalized on. ' Raw data for this analysis was obtained from the Crow Wing County Auditor's office and is based on data prepared by the County Assessor. 121 Page