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4. Forecasted Traffic <br /> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -. <br /> Any changes to the transportation system must be able to accommodate existing as well <br /> as projected future traffic. Two future year scenarios are analyzed; 2024 and 2039 <br /> representing five year and 20-year forecasts. To forecast future traffic volumes in the study <br /> the general growth in traffic is considered first. <br /> Previously collected traffic volumes along study roadways were gathered from the period <br /> of 2001 to 2015, before the Highway 371 bypass project. Growth rates could then be <br /> developed for the study roadways during that period and averaged to determine the <br /> general overall growth. The growth along Patriot Avenue (previously Highway 371)was not <br /> included in this average since that growth may have been due to factors outside of Pequot <br /> Lakes. This average growth rate was found to be approximately 1% per year and is <br /> assumed to continue through the 20-year forecasts for this study. This rate then covers <br /> expected development and continued growth of the City into the future. <br /> A second type of growth is based on the high school adjacent to several of the study <br /> intersections. Based on discussion with the Pequot Lakes School District, the student <br /> population of the school district is anticipated to increase by about 5%total in the next three <br /> years with no significant growth anticipated for the long term. A separate growth rate of 5% <br /> (total, not per year) for both the 2024 and 2039 scenarios is therefore conservatively <br /> applied to traffic related to the school. <br /> For the sake of this analysis, it is assumed most of the trips on the south leg of 2"d Street <br /> & Main Street and the west legs of Patriot Avenue & Woodman Street and Patriot Avenue <br /> & West Lake Street are related to school traffic. Those volumes are then proportionally <br /> carried through the study network. <br /> To summarize, a background growth rate of 1% per year was applied to the existing non- <br /> school traffic volumes with a total 5% applied to school related traffic to establish the 2024 <br /> and 2039 forecasts. The average daily traffic volume forecasts developed through this <br /> process as well as the resultant 2024 and 2039 peak hour forecasts are shown in the <br /> Appendix. <br /> Traffic Study 5 • . CONSULTING <br /> PequotLakes <br />