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This shift could bring up to 46,000 permanent households to the study area, primarily during the
<br /> next 10 years,if second homeowners carry out their plans to relocate.All but two of the counties in
<br /> the study area experienced substantial, double-digit population growth in the 1990s. The average
<br /> increase for all eight counties during the 1990s was just under 17 percent(see Table 2 below).
<br /> Considerably less growth occurred in the first decade of the 21st century, although Crow Wing and
<br /> Hubbard counties continued to grow rapidly. Responses to our survey suggest a continuation of
<br /> population growth in the decades to come, potentially resulting in significant social,land use,
<br /> environmental and economic impacts.
<br /> Change %Change Change %Change
<br /> County 1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 1990-2000 2000-2010 2000-2010
<br /> Aitkin 12,425 15,301 16,202 2,876 23.1% 901 5.9%
<br /> Becker 27,881 30,000 32,504 2,119 7.6% 2,504 8.3%
<br /> Cass 21,791 27,150 28,567 5,359 24.6% 1,417 5.2%
<br /> Crow Wing 44,249 55,099 62,500 10,850 24.5% 7,401 13.4%
<br /> Douglas 28,674 32,821 36,009 4,147 14.5% 3,188 9.7%
<br /> Hubbard 14,939 18,376 20,428 3,437 23.0% 2,052 11.2%
<br /> Otter Tail 50,714 57,159 57,303 6,445 12.7% 144 0.3%
<br /> Pope 10,745 11,236 10,995 491 4.6% -241 -2.1%
<br /> Minnesota 4,375,099 4,919,492 5,303,925 544,393 12.4% 384,433 7.8%
<br /> Table 2:Change in population in study area
<br /> Source:Decennial Census of 1990,2000,and 2010 U.S.Census Bureau
<br /> We know from research completed during the past 25 years that in many"recreation," "high natural
<br /> amenity," and"retirement counties"-similar in nature to those included in this Minnesota study-
<br /> population
<br /> has increased at much higher rates than in other rural counties.The population of
<br /> recreation counties in the United States grew by 20 percent during the 1990s, almost three times as
<br /> fast as all other non-metro counties. Most of this growth in high natural amenity counties can be
<br /> attributed to people moving in,rather than to natural increases; that is, the number of births in a
<br /> given county exceeding the number of deaths(Johnson and Beale, 2002; Reeder and Brown, 2005).
<br /> Between 2000 and 2010,the pace of migration into rural U.S. counties, including recreational
<br /> counties, slowed but population increases in high natural amenity counties still exceeded the
<br /> increases in other non-metro counties(Johnson, 2012).
<br /> This trend is nothing new, however.As Johnson and Beale write, "Recreational areas have long
<br /> attracted large numbers of visitors. Recent data show that they are also attracting many permanent
<br /> residents. Once vacationers discover an area they like,many make return visits, eventually buy a
<br /> second home there, and finally migrate to establish their primary residence in the area" (Johnson&
<br /> Beale, 2002, p. 12).
<br /> Aging Baby Boomers may make the next population surge in the lakes districts of Minnesota even
<br /> stronger. In 2003, the labor force participation rate of Baby Boomers was 66 percent. Now that
<br /> number is now closer to 63 percent(AARP, 2013).We can reasonably assume that retirees are more
<br /> able to relocate, and increasing numbers from the large Baby Boom cohort have entered their
<br /> retirement years. It is worth noting that Minnesota's State Demographic Center population
<br /> projections do not support the prediction that substantial population growth will occur in all 8
<br /> counties in the study area. The Center, looking at migration and other factors, predicts that Aitkin
<br /> County will lose population over the next 2 decades and that the increase in the number of persons
<br /> - Second Homeowners of Central and West Central MN 12
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